The Efficiency Comparison That Determines Everything
Electric resistance heating (baseboard heaters, electric furnaces) converts electricity to heat at 100% efficiency — every kilowatt of electricity becomes exactly 1 kW of heat. A gas furnace at 95% AFUE converts 95% of gas to heat. But efficiency alone doesn't determine operating cost — you need to compare fuel prices on equivalent terms. At national averages (18¢/kWh electricity, $1.70/therm gas), heating with electric resistance costs about $0.053/kBTU while a 95% AFUE gas furnace costs about $0.018/kBTU. Electric resistance is roughly three times as expensive as high-efficiency gas per unit of heat. That is because a kWh holds only 3,412 BTU, so an 18¢ kWh works out to about 5.3¢ per thousand BTU even at 100% efficiency — the efficiency advantage can't make up that price gap.
Heat Pumps Change the Equation Entirely
When people compare electric heat vs gas heat, they often conflate electric resistance (inefficient) with heat pumps (highly efficient). At current national averages (18¢/kWh, $1.70/therm), electric resistance costs about $0.053/kBTU while a heat pump at COP 2.5 costs $0.021/kBTU and at COP 3.0 costs $0.018/kBTU — 2.5 to 3× cheaper than resistance heating. Against a 95% AFUE gas furnace at $0.018/kBTU, a COP 3.0 heat pump is essentially tied, while a COP 2.5 unit runs slightly more. So the honest answer at national averages is that heat pumps and gas are now close to even, and the winner depends on your local rates, your unit's real-world COP, and how cold your winters get. The policy trajectory still favors heat pumps: gas prices are expected to rise as export demand grows, while electricity is decarbonizing.
Regional Variation Is Extreme
National averages mask enormous regional variation. What the regional spread changes is how much resistance heat loses, and whether a heat pump wins. In Louisiana, where residential electricity runs around 9¢/kWh, electric resistance costs about $0.026/kBTU — still more than gas at the national average, but only by about half. A heat pump at COP 2.5 on the same power costs about $0.011/kBTU, which beats gas at typical prices; against Gulf Coast gas near $0.80/therm (about $0.008/kBTU) gas still edges it. In Connecticut, at around 28¢/kWh, resistance heat costs about $0.082/kBTU — nearly four times New England gas at $2.00/therm — and even a COP 2.5 heat pump ($0.033/kBTU) loses to gas. For electric resistance to beat a 95% gas furnace outright, electricity would need to cost less than about 6¢/kWh at $1.70/therm gas, which almost no U.S. household pays. Your local utility rate card and gas rate determine the correct answer for your home — and the calculator above uses your specific inputs to show this dynamic clearly.
The Electrification Trajectory: What to Plan For
Multiple states (California, Massachusetts, New York) have policies targeting elimination of new gas appliance sales by 2025–2030. Gas utilities face declining customer bases as electrification accelerates, creating potential for rate increases as fixed costs spread over fewer customers. Planning a gas heating system replacement today means making a 15–20 year commitment. Heat pump technology is mature and prices are falling, though the federal incentive (30% ITC, up to $2,000 cap) that used to help offset the switch expired December 31, 2025 — check for state and utility incentives instead.